Introduction

Artificial intelligence is profoundly reshaping the production and lifestyle of human society, becoming a significant driving force behind a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. In 2025, the State Council issued the “Opinions on Deepening the Implementation of the ‘Artificial Intelligence+’ Action,” proposing that “by 2035, our country will fully enter a new stage of intelligent economy and intelligent society development.” In this process, artificial intelligence will have a far-reaching impact on employment and the labor market.

Major Technological Revolutions and Employment

Historically, every major technological revolution has had a profound and lasting impact on employment structure and income distribution. During the First Industrial Revolution, new technologies represented by steam engine technology significantly improved production efficiency and reshaped the labor demand structure in countries like the UK by replacing manual labor with machines. This led to a relative increase in returns on capital and technology, while the bargaining power of low-skilled workers decreased. The Second Industrial Revolution, marked by the electrical revolution, further promoted large-scale production and changes in corporate organization, deepening labor division and occupational differentiation. Subsequently, the computer technology and information technology revolution that emerged in the 1940s and 1950s is widely regarded as a significant technological factor contributing to the widening income distribution gap in Western countries. Currently, the rapid iteration of artificial intelligence technology is beginning to reveal its impact on the labor market and income distribution.

Theoretically, the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market can be seen in two main effects: the employment substitution effect and the employment creation effect. The employment substitution effect refers to the replacement of certain existing labor tasks by artificial intelligence technology through automation and intelligence, leading to a decrease or even disappearance of demand for related positions, thus exerting pressure on specific skills and labor groups. Conversely, the employment creation effect indicates that the emergence and diffusion of new technologies will not only give rise to new industrial forms and production links but also create a series of new job demands, including high-skilled positions such as algorithm engineers and data scientists, as well as relatively lower-skilled roles like algorithm trainers and digital marketers. However, the strength of these two effects and how they manifest at different stages still require further observation.

Recent studies suggest that while artificial intelligence exerts substitution pressure on certain positions, it also promotes employment by generating new tasks, industries, and professions. A report from the World Economic Forum predicts that from 2025 to 2030, trends in artificial intelligence and information processing technology will lead to the replacement of approximately 9 million jobs, while simultaneously creating about 11 million new jobs. Research from the International Labour Organization indicates that about a quarter of global jobs may be affected by generative artificial intelligence, but a more likely outcome is a transformation in job content and skill structure rather than large-scale complete replacement.

Thus, while the overall impact of artificial intelligence on employment remains uncertain, its role in reshaping the structure of the labor market is inevitable. Compared to traditional automation, generative artificial intelligence possesses characteristics of knowledge deepening and knowledge expansion. On the one hand, it significantly reduces the costs of knowledge production, replication, and dissemination by efficiently processing vast amounts of information, learning implicit experiences, and automating complex cognitive tasks. On the other hand, with a certain degree of autonomy and decision-making ability, it breaks through existing human cognitive boundaries, continuously promoting the exploration and creation of new knowledge. The impact of artificial intelligence on employment is no longer limited to the replacement of simple, procedural tasks; it is beginning to penetrate deeper into cognitive activities such as information processing, analysis, judgment, and content generation. This is particularly true for intellectual labor, where the substitutability of complex tasks that rely on rule-based reasoning and knowledge integration is continuously increasing.

Key Factors to Consider

The impact of artificial intelligence on overall employment, structure, and income distribution also depends on several key factors:

1. Direction of Technological Progress: If advancements in artificial intelligence primarily manifest as substitution-type technologies, the employment substitution effect may dominate, exerting downward pressure on overall employment. Conversely, if technological progress is more employment-friendly, it will play a greater role in expanding employment scale and improving quality.

2. Labor Skill Structure: If the skill structure of the labor force closely aligns with the direction of artificial intelligence technology development, workers will be able to quickly upgrade their skills and transition to new tasks and positions, making it easier for the employment creation effect to take the lead. Conversely, if the adjustment of skill structures lags behind technological progress and workers lack retraining and redeployment capabilities, the risk of structural unemployment will increase, and the employment substitution effect will become more prominent.

3. Public Policy System: The design of public policies in areas such as education and training, employment services, social security, and income distribution will directly affect the speed and cost of labor adjustments under the influence of artificial intelligence. If the policy system can timely adapt to the development of artificial intelligence technology, improve mechanisms for lifelong learning, strengthen support for job transitions, and optimize social security arrangements, it will help mitigate substitution effects and amplify productivity dividends. Conversely, if policy adjustments lag, the negative impact of technological progress on employment may be exacerbated.

Exploring Effective Paths to Address Changes

Further attention to the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and guiding and promoting the enhancement of quality and efficiency in human work through artificial intelligence has become a consensus. Currently, the job displacement caused by intelligence has not yet reached a large scale, necessitating continuous exploration of effective paths to address changes in practice.

1. Encouraging Employment-Friendly AI Innovations: Innovative policies should be introduced to encourage more employment-friendly artificial intelligence technology innovations. This includes fiscal subsidies, tax incentives, and public procurement, focusing on AI technologies that can enhance labor productivity, expand labor participation, and promote the generation of new tasks. Additionally, policies and regulations should be strengthened to regulate and guide the development of artificial intelligence, with a focus on data security and privacy protection, algorithm transparency, intellectual property rights, and ethical standards to ensure the healthy development of AI technology.

2. Advancing Education System Reform: Incorporating knowledge and skills related to artificial intelligence into the education system at all levels is essential. This includes strengthening training in data analysis and AI literacy, solidifying students’ foundational capabilities to adapt to the AI era. Support should also be provided for teachers through continuous training and professional development to enhance their ability to use AI in teaching, promoting a transformation in teaching models. Furthermore, the potential of artificial intelligence to expand access to quality educational resources should be fully utilized, promoting educational equity to ensure that remote areas and disadvantaged groups can also benefit from intelligent educational technologies, supporting inclusive development in the AI era.

3. Establishing Regular Employment Monitoring and Early Warning Mechanisms: Utilizing public employment service platforms to integrate information on employment registration, social security contributions, recruitment demands, and job changes is crucial. Establishing a regular employment monitoring and early warning mechanism covering industries, occupations, and skills is necessary to track and pay attention to job reductions, task substitutions, and income declines due to the application of artificial intelligence technology. This will help identify concentrated areas and key groups facing structural unemployment risks. Strengthening inter-departmental data sharing and regular early warning analysis will provide a basis for precise employment policy interventions, targeted allocation of training resources, and timely social security responses, enhancing the foresight and scientific nature of work.

4. Strengthening Support for Retraining and Job Transition: For workers who find it difficult to directly adapt to the changes brought about by artificial intelligence technology, systematic support policies focused on specialized training should be implemented. This should prioritize the development of general skills and transferable skills training aimed at job transition. By involving government guidance, enterprise participation, and collaboration with social organizations, the job skill requirements of industry associations and leading enterprises should be embedded in training design, and a vocational skill evaluation system should be established. Based on real job demands, an effective connection mechanism between training and employment should be constructed to reduce the costs of labor adjustment across industries and positions, alleviating the structural employment pressures brought about by technological changes.

5. Improving the Social Security System: There is a need to further improve the social security system covering unemployed groups and workers in new employment forms, strengthening the connection between unemployment insurance, employment assistance, vocational training, and re-employment services to enhance the buffering and safety net capabilities of related systems. Additionally, for new employment forms, exploring mechanisms for lowering participation thresholds and flexible payment methods for social security will gradually include relevant groups in pension, medical, and work injury protection.